The Shifting Sands of Global Power

We ask is a new world order emerging? Is the end of US dominance a bad thing?

The global landscape is profoundly transforming as we delve deeper into the 21st century. The long-standing dominance of the United States on the world stage, a cornerstone of international relations since the end of World War II, is facing an unprecedented challenge. This isn't merely a changing of the guard; it's a fundamental restructuring of the international order, driven by the emergence of alternative power blocs and the realignment of global economic forces.

The Rise of a New Axis

At the forefront of this transformation is the burgeoning alliance between Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. Once disparate nations united primarily by their opposition to Western influence, they present a coordinated front that spans military, technological, and diplomatic spheres. Their collaboration in conflicts like Ukraine, where Russia has allegedly sought North Korean military support, signals a new level of cooperation. Joint military exercises and technology sharing between these nations send a clear message: the era of unchallenged Western military supremacy is waning.

China's military modernization has been particularly striking, with its defense budget growing from $115.7 billion in 2010 to $325 billion in 2023. This exponential growth has funded significant capabilities expansion across air, sea, and land forces, while enabling breakthrough developments in areas like hypersonic weapons and artificial intelligence.

Putin & Kim

Economic Realignment: The BRICS Factor

Parallel to this military-political axis, the expanding BRICS coalition is reshaping the economic world. No longer just a catchy acronym for emerging economies, BRICS has evolved into a powerful economic bloc that's actively challenging the US-centric financial system. With the recent addition of major Middle Eastern economies, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, BRICS now commands a formidable share of global GDP and natural resources.

The combined economic might of the expanded BRICS bloc now rivals that of the G7, with BRICS accounting for 29.3% of global GDP compared to the G7's 30.2% in 2024. This near-parity represents a dramatic shift from the economic landscape of just two decades ago.

US Influence: Declining or Adapting?

The erosion of US influence can be traced through several significant post-1991 cases where regional powers successfully challenged American interests:

• Syria (2015-present): Russia's military intervention effectively prevented US-backed regime change, marking the first major direct challenge to US Middle East policy since the Cold War.

• Afghanistan (2021): The Taliban's swift takeover following US withdrawal, despite 20 years of American military presence and nation-building efforts, highlighted the limits of US power projection.

• South China Sea: China's successful militarization of artificial islands, despite strong US opposition, demonstrated America's inability to prevent strategic rivals from changing facts on the ground.

• Venezuela (2019): The failed US-backed attempt to replace the Maduro regime showed the limits of American influence even in its traditional sphere of influence.

• Horn of Africa: China's establishment of its first overseas military base in Djibouti (2017) symbolized the end of exclusive US military presence in strategic regions.

The Technological Battlefield

In several crucial technological domains, China has already surpassed or matched US capabilities:

• 5G Technology: Huawei leads globally in 5G patents and implementation

• Digital Payments: China's mobile payment systems (WeChat Pay, Alipay) are more advanced and widely adopted than Western alternatives

• Quantum Communications: China achieved breakthroughs with the Micius satellite and the world's longest quantum communication network

• High-Speed Rail: China's extensive network demonstrates superior infrastructure capabilities

• Electric Vehicle Batteries: CATL's global leadership in production and technology

• Hypersonic Weapons: Successful testing of advanced hypersonic glide vehicles

Alternative Futures: A Multi-Verse of Global Orders

The future global order could take several forms, depending on which power emerges as the primary "global sheriff":

China as Global Hegemon

• Belt and Road Initiative becomes the primary framework for global infrastructure development

• Yuan replaces the dollar as the world's reserve currency

• State-capitalism becomes the dominant economic model

• International relations prioritize sovereignty over human rights intervention

• Taiwan reunification achieved, reshaping East Asian power dynamics

Russia as Global Hegemon

• Eurasia becomes the primary sphere of influence

• Energy markets controlled through gas/oil leverage

• NATO dissolved or severely weakened

• Former Soviet states reintegrated into Russian sphere

• Military intervention normalized as a foreign policy tool

Emerging Governance Models

The challenge to US dominance isn't just about shifting power centers - it's also about competing systems of governance:

• China's "Whole-Process Democracy": Emphasizing economic outcomes and social stability over electoral processes

• Singapore Model: Demonstrating the viability of authoritarian capitalism with strong state planning

• Digital Authoritarianism: Leveraging AI and big data for social control and governance

• Hybrid Systems: Combining aspects of democracy and authoritarianism in new ways

• Regional Governance: Following the EU model of supranational organization

• Corporate Governance: Tech companies emerging as quasi-governmental entities

Conclusion

Global power transformation occurs across multiple dimensions - military, economic, technological, and ideological. While the US maintains significant advantages in many areas, the emergence of viable alternative power centers and governance models suggests we enter a truly multipolar era. The challenge for global stability will be managing this transition while preventing major conflicts and maintaining international cooperation on critical issues like climate change and nuclear proliferation. I’d love to know what you think will happen - it's also worth checking out our previous piece on designing a better world order: